Happy Derby! Weather is going to be wet in Louisville for the greatest 2 minutes in sports on the first Saturday of May. Let's start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with 2 strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race.
| Derby Winner | BRIS Speed Rating | Last race (# weeks before Derby) |
| MYSTIK DAN | 98, 101 | Arkansas Derby (5 weeks) |
| MAGE | 101, 95 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| RICH STRIKE | 95, 87 | Jeff Ruby Steaks (5 weeks) |
| MANDALOUN | 83, 100 | Louisiana Derby (6 weeks) |
| AUTHENTIC | 107, 105 | Haskell Invitational (6 weeks) |
| JUSTIFY | 114, 104 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| ALWAYS DREAMING | 102, 84 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| NYQUIST | 97, 103 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| AMERICAN PHARAOH | 102, 99 | Arkansas Derby (4 weeks) |
| CALIFORNIA CHROME | 106, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks) |
| ORB | 97, 102 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| I'LL HAVE ANOTHER | 98, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| ANIMAL KINGDOM | 97, 96 | Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly) |
| SUPER SAVER | 92, 94 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| MINE THAT BIRD | 96, 98 | Sunland Derby (5 weeks) |
| BIG BROWN | 106, 104 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| STREET SENSE | 98, 101 | Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly) |
| BARBARO | 104, 104, 97, 97 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| GIACOMO | 100, 96, 98, 96 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SMARTY JONES | 105, 109, 101, 103 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| FUNNY CIDE | 111, 103, 97 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| WAR EMBLEM | 109, 105, 88, 94 | Illinois Derby (4 weeks) |
| MONARCHOS | 108, 108, 106, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| FUSIACHI PEGASUS | 110, 103, 100, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| CHARISMATIC | 104, 94, 94, 94 | Lexington (2 weeks) |
| REAL QUIET | 107, 103, 73 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SILVER CHARM | 102, 98, 105 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| GRINDSTONE | 101, 102, 93 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| THUNDER GULCH | 98, 103, 106 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| GO FOR GIN | 104, 105, 99, 100 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| SEA HERO | 96, 85, 77 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| LIL E. TEE | 102, 96, 107, 100 | Arkansas Derby (2 weeks) |
| STRIKE THE GOLD | 109, 100, 99, 87 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| UNBRIDLED | 108, 101, 104, 98 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
This year the only horse to show that qualification is the favorite Journalism, so we will be looking to pair him with other longshots for a better potential payday. This first leg of the Triple Crown is jam packed with 19 horses, so plenty of racing luck is needed for a smooth trip. We will use Journalism in exotic bets (picking the top 2 or top 3 finishers). Typically for this 1-1/4 mile classic, none of these horses have ever raced this far at their tender age of 3 years old. So look for value here for sure.
My picks to surprise in the Derby are:
Final Gambit (Post Position 3, 30-1 odds) is my top risk/reward play to win the Kentucky Derby. The colt won the Jeff Ruby Steaks race at nearby Turfway Park in impressive fashion , going from last to first with a major closing kick. Since none of these 3 year olds have ever raced this far, you want a horse that will relish the extra distance. Owner Juddmonte Farms is known for classy runners, and this one could surprise. This is certainly a value play worth backing. His latest Brisnet speed rating of 101 is a vast improvement over the 3 prior races.
Citizen Bull (PP 1, 20-1): Bob Baffert returns from a 3-year suspension at Churchill with last year's 2-year old champion. The 1 hole is considered dreaded because a horse can get pinched on the rail, but I expect him to break quickly to get out in front early. Can he hold on? I suspect another colt will run him down late but must use in exotics.
Journalism (PP 8, 3-1): The favorite deserves the attention with 4 wins in a row and 3 graded stakes victories including the latest beating the talented and regally-bred Baeza (PP 21, 12-1). Journalism is more of a stalker, and I expect him to be in winning position at the top of the stretch but likely get outkicked late by the closers.
Essentially you could bet every horse that's 20-1 or more in addition to these listed above with some win bets. I particularly like the value on Coal Battle (PP16, 30-1), American Promise (PP 5, 30-1) and Owen Almighty (PP 20, 30-1).
Here's my plays I plan to make for the 151st Kentucky Derby:
- $10 Win on 3
- $5 Win on 1
- $3 Win on 5, 16, 20
- $2 Exacta box 3, 1, 8
- $1 Exacta 3 with ALL
- $1 Exacta 8 with ALL
- $1 Trifecta box 3,1,8
- $1 Trifecta box 1,8,21
Good Luck!
Price Headley
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736