Disaster is nigh. At least, that's what the headlines would lead you to believe after the S&P 500 made a so-called "death cross" on Friday. Even the name sound foreboding. Never even mind what it means. What it means, by the way, is a particular chart's 50-day moving average line has crossed below its 200-day moving average line, hinting that the longer-term trend has turned decidedly bearish. If all goes as assumed, that stock or index will be priced uncomfortably lower within... well, that's not clear. While a death cross is bearish, the outcome of the technical event has never been assigned any specifics. It's just bad news, even if non-descript. What if, however, there was more bark to the worry than actual bite? There is. History proves it. Since the early 1960's the S&P 500 has seen a total of 29 death crosses, with the 29th one being the… more
In case you were wondering, last week was the worst week for stocks since March. It's also worth noting that the drubbing in question from March also sparked a rather significant rally. Will this time turn out any different? It's tough to say, though given that we're neither fundamentally nor economically any worse off now than we were then, we... more
All in all, the November jobs report was better than it seemed to be on the surface. While job creation came up short of expectations, that may be more a function on not enough qualified candidates rather than not enough jobs. And, wage growth was firmer than implied when looking at the data from the less-touted (but arguably more meaningful)... more
– Bond market is already firing a warning shot, says Oliver Jones, a Capital Economics analyst – By Sunny Oh, MarketWatch Parts of the U.S. bond market are seeing short-dated yields push above their long-dated peers, a "warning sign" for the stock market as Wall Street's economic expectations for 2019 deteriorate. That's what Oliver Jones, an analyst for Capital Economics,... more
By Richard Turnill, BlackRock's Global Chief Investment Strategist Oil prices are in a bear market. Both Brent (the international price benchmark) and WTI (the American benchmark) have declined more than 30% from 2018 highs. Where does oil go from here? We see oil prices near their nadir and a potential price recovery opening up opportunity for investors. One reason oil... more
– 3-year and 5-year note inverts for first time since 2007 – By Sunny Oh, MarketWatch Bond investors are anticipating an increasingly dark landscape for the U.S. economy amid global growth headwinds, higher interest rates and the potential for a full-blown trade war. Against that backdrop, the yield curve's slope, measured by the spread between short-dated and long-dated yields, are... more
By Stephanie Landsman, CNBC Invesco's Kristina Hooper is concerned Wall Street is ignoring a major risk: Wage growth. But it may reclaim the spotlight as soon as Friday when the government releases its November jobs report. Hooper believes if the number ticks up too high, it could hint at price pressures that may shift the Federal Reserve's thinking on rates,... more
Trend Watch, TRENDSCORE, webinars, technical analysis e-book, and more!