The bears had their opportunity to quell the rally - or at least shut it down for a while. When push came to shove as the three-day weekend approached though, the bulls wanted it more. Granted, the removal of the risk of another government shutdown gave the market the nudge it needed. But, even without that nudge it doesn't look like traders have any valuation concerns just yet. There's still a chance for a small stumble here... a stumble that in some ways would actually be beneficial. The rally needs a good 'reset' so it can fully renew. It wouldn't even take much to do that, which we'll explain in some detail below. Before we get to any of that analysis though, let's run-down last week's economic announcements and preview this week's reports. We got a curious, potentially misleading data nugget last week that we want to explore so we… more
– The prevailing mood has shifted from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism – By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch Sentiment conditions on Wall Street are flashing short-term danger signs. That's because the mood has shifted from the extreme pessimism that prevailed in late December to nearly as extreme optimism today. Some call current conditions a "slope of hope." Consider the average recommended... more
The headlines certainly look dire. The Wall Street Journal's "Retail Sales Declined in December as Fastest Pace Since 2009" not only leaves nothing to the imagination, its paints a grim picture of what may lie ahead. The only problem is, the message is misleading at best, and outright false at worst, proving most of the media will stop at nothing... more
Just like the December implosion hit all stocks rather uniformly, the bounce back from that late December low has also been distributed evenly. There was little need to do any sector-based analysis, because all sectors were soaring. The further removed we get from the December 26th reversal though, the more we can start to see some divergence. The past week... more
Leuthold Group's Doug Ramsey lays out a series of worst case scenarios for stocks, including a "broad and deep revaluation" during the next recession. Over the next year, Ramsey believes the S&P 500 could "undercut" last year's closing low of 2,351 on Christmas Eve. "I think it's going to be scary over the next couple of months," says Ramsey, suggesting... more
Our research team has warned that the precious metals market would enter a 30~45 day rotational price trend on January 28, 2019. On January 16, 2019, we suggested that the upside price move in the US stock market had reached initial upside target zones and suggested that price pullback would be healthy near these levels. Today, we are warning that... more
– Demand for a haven appears to outweigh rate pause – By Anneken Tappe, MarketWatch A closely followed dollar index recorded its biggest percentage gain in six months, as the currency's status as a haven appears to be trumping the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt. Mounting worries over global growth prospects are providing the dollar with the sort of haven appeal... more
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