Last week was initially encouraging, but the more the market meanders this week, the less encouraging that reversal effort becomes. Don't be too discouraged by the lack of progress of the recovery effort this week though. Not only could rest-breaks be expected, this is exactly where we'd expect to see them... for a couple of different reasons. The first of those reasons is this week's encounter with the 20-day moving average line (blue) at 2619. The index spent a little time above that level on Tuesday, but not much... certainly not enough to convince buyers still on the sidelines to jump in and take the advance to the next proverbial level. That doesn't mean it's a lost cause though. Such a technical event is usually more of a process than a singular event, and this isn't should be no different. In fact, it's more apt to be the case given… more
Understanding the stock market and its potential through the use of technical analysis and historical price events has been proven repeatedly to outperform all forms of fundamental trading styles. The following is a story that walks you through my experience, the shift in my mindset and how I came to the conclusion that the three charts I share in this... more
The ending was a bit of a disappointment, with the S&P 500 logging a 3.4% loss on Friday. Still, what a week. The 17.7% rally between Monday's and Thursday's closes translated into a full-week gain of 10.2%, which is the best week for the market since 1938. Not bad. We're still in no-man's land, of course. This "best week" for... more
The premise seems reasonable enough. Rarely does the market ease into or out of a trend these days. Rather, stocks tend to be jolted into or out of trouble, resulting in "V" shaped or peak-shaped bottoms or tops (respectively). The trick to knowing if a reversal effort is going to last is determining which of those reversals is started with... more
The market has received help from monetary policy and looks on its way to aid from the fiscal side. However, market experts see no clear path forward without signs the coronavirus is passing. "We're going to need to have to see the infections pass an inflection point," said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Asset Management. Markets rallied sharply Tuesday... more
It's a description that strikes fear into the heart of investors. Death Cross. The rarely-seen technical event that signals even more downside for stocks ahead — even more than the selling that caused the so-called death cross in the first place. Except, it's complete and utter nonsense, if history is any indication. On the off-chance your reading this and haven't... more
The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org). All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward... more
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