Happy Derby! It should be a sunny, cool day in Louisville for the greatest 2 minutes in sports on the first Saturday of May. Let's start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with 2 consecutive strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. Last year, Journalism was the only horse with 2 straight 100+ speed ratings and he ran a game 2nd place to Sovereignty's victory.
| Derby Winner | BRIS Speed Rating | Last race (# weeks before Derby) |
| SOVEREIGNTY | 98, 99 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| MYSTIK DAN | 98, 101 | Arkansas Derby (5 weeks) |
| MAGE | 101, 95 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| RICH STRIKE | 95, 87 | Jeff Ruby Steaks (5 weeks) |
| MANDALOUN | 83, 100 | Louisiana Derby (6 weeks) |
| AUTHENTIC | 107, 105 | Haskell Invitational (6 weeks) |
| JUSTIFY | 114, 104 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| ALWAYS DREAMING | 102, 84 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| NYQUIST | 97, 103 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| AMERICAN PHARAOH | 102, 99 | Arkansas Derby (4 weeks) |
| CALIFORNIA CHROME | 106, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks) |
| ORB | 97, 102 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| I'LL HAVE ANOTHER | 98, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| ANIMAL KINGDOM | 97, 96 | Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly) |
| SUPER SAVER | 92, 94 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| MINE THAT BIRD | 96, 98 | Sunland Derby (5 weeks) |
| BIG BROWN | 106, 104 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| STREET SENSE | 98, 101 | Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly) |
| BARBARO | 104, 104, 97, 97 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| GIACOMO | 100, 96, 98, 96 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SMARTY JONES | 105, 109, 101, 103 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| FUNNY CIDE | 111, 103, 97 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| WAR EMBLEM | 109, 105, 88, 94 | Illinois Derby (4 weeks) |
| MONARCHOS | 108, 108, 106, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| FUSIACHI PEGASUS | 110, 103, 100, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| CHARISMATIC | 104, 94, 94, 94 | Lexington (2 weeks) |
| REAL QUIET | 107, 103, 73 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SILVER CHARM | 102, 98, 105 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| GRINDSTONE | 101, 102, 93 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| THUNDER GULCH | 98, 103, 106 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| GO FOR GIN | 104, 105, 99, 100 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| SEA HERO | 96, 85, 77 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| LIL E. TEE | 102, 96, 107, 100 | Arkansas Derby (2 weeks) |
| STRIKE THE GOLD | 109, 100, 99, 87 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| UNBRIDLED | 108, 101, 104, 98 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
My picks to win the Derby are:
- Commandment (Post Position 6, 6-1 odds) is my top risk/reward play to win the Kentucky Derby. The colt has won 4 straight races, with the last two victories by a nose and a neck including the Florida Derby win that has been a springboard for 5 of the last 12 Derby winners.
- So Happy (PP 8, 10-1) looks like the best value play for a classy top performer in recent races. Speed ratings of 107, 97, 104 including the big win most recently in the Santa Anita Derby in California have me wondering why the odds makers are not more hyped on this colt. Perhaps because the trip from the West Coast has not been as kind to recent Derby contenders.
- Chief Wallabee (PP 12, 8-1) ran a game 2nd to Commandment in the Florida Derby and just posted a blazing workout to show he's sharp and ready for the big race. The only downside is whatever value might have been had has been factored in by that good news.
- $10 Win on 6
- $10 Win on 8
- $5 Win on 12
- $4 Win on 10
- $2 Exacta box 6, 8, 12
- $1 Exacta 6 with ALL
- $1 Exacta 8 with ALL
- $1 Trifecta box 6, 8, 12
- $1 Trifecta wheel 6, 8 with 6,8,10,12,18 with 10,12,18
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