The S&P is about to do something it hasn’t done since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House

Posted by jbrumley on October 26, 2017 1:20 PM
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By Rebecca Ungarino, CNBC

It's been a record year for records, and this month is no exception.

Despite a spike in volatility on Wednesday, the average daily market range in October has skidded to its most narrow since August 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson was president, the Dow Jones industrial average was trading a little more than 800 and the common measure of implied volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, was still decades away from its creation.

This historically calm market, according to data from Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, is particularly unusual for October.

"Everyone knows that October historically is one of the more volatile months. Well as of right now, the average daily change for the S&P 500 during the normally volatile month of October is only 0.22 percent," Detrick said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

That range is its tiniest since August 1964, which was "probably the least volatile year ever. 2017, with a little bit of time to go, is right there with it."

Detrick acknowledged the concern that volatility may be mean-reverting, and will return to the market eventually simply given the school of thought that market turbulence tends to return after periods without. But at this point, Detrick said, what is supposed to be a turbulent season is turning out to be just as calm as the rest of the year.

Furthermore, stocks will likely continue their climb higher even if volatility penetrates the market once again, Detrick said. He expects the economy to remain strong in 2018, pointing specifically to solid manufacturing data and a global resurgence in earnings.

"We could see higher volatility in the future, but this could also be accompanied with higher equity prices. Again, that has happened before and it will likely happen again," he wrote Tuesday in an email to CNBC.

Equities were lower Wednesday, on pace for their worst session since early September. The VIX rose and neared its highest level since Sept. 8, just below the 12 mark.

From CNBC

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