Look for Twilio (TWLO) Fireworks on Tuesday

It's finally here. After a long, exhilarating six months, all those shares of Twilio (TWLO) owned by insiders in its major initial investors in the late-June IPO are going to become free-trading shares as of Tuesday, allowing those holders to sell their positions and walk away with — despite a 58% pullback from September's high — a solid 100% profit…....

Why the Stock Market May Not See a Santa Rally This Year

Santa Claus may skip Wall Street this year as stocks have been too good. By Sue Chang, MarketWatch When Santa Claus hitches up Rudolph for his annual Christmas route this year, he may well skip Wall Street, not because stocks have been naughty but because they’ve been so good. At least that is the bold forecast among some analysts who...

Weekly Market Outlook – The Trump Bump Can’t Get Over the Hump

Weekly Market Outlook – December 18th, 2016 Despite a couple of tries, the bulls could never quite achieve escape velocity last week, perhaps a bit stunned and a little concerned not about the rate hike (that was pretty much a foregone conclusion), but by the fact that the Fed's current plans include not two but three  more rate increases in...

Iron Condors: Sometimes, the Best Trade is the One Not Taken

Most of the time a successful option trade means making the right call about a particular stock or index's future, and then determining which option (or options) would find the optimal balance between risk and reward. Sometimes though, circumstances simply make it impossible to make a decent buck even if you make the right call. This was one of those...

Fed Day Commentary Seen From a Distance

By Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg This Fed Day was an unusual experience: I was in Dubai, which meant the Open Market Committee announcement came at 11 p.m., and the press conference that followed didn't end until after midnight. The time difference provided an unusual sense of distance from the often frantic atmosphere that typically follows a policy announcement by the...

Why the Dollar Rally May Just Be Getting Started

By Leslie Shaffer, CNBC The dollar could continue to lap other currencies after surging in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on Wednesday. After the Fed's call, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, jumped as high as 102.62, its highest since 2003, from under 101 before the decision. At 9:23...

Today’s Likely Fed Funds Rate Hike Won’t be the Last One for a While

One would think that as the decision-date (which is today) for the Federal Reserve's next hike in the Fed Funds rate approached, the near certainty of it being ratcheted higher be evidenced by more literal bets to that end. That's not the way it's panned out, however. Amazingly enough, based on the futures for the Fed Funds rate, traders are...

5 Lies Investors Tell Themselves When Stocks Are Surging

Denial can cost you in more ways than one By John Coumarianos, MarketWatch With U.S. stocks in record territory, investors need to take their emotional temperature. Emotions can be your worst enemy when it comes to money and stocks, especially during big, rapid market moves that can warp your thinking in unforgiving ways — like these: 1. Forgetting that purchase...

The Arms Index Says This is the Least-Enthusiastic Rally in Years

The headlines of late have been even more binary than usual. That is to say, half of traders and commentators are extremely bullish, while the other half are alarmingly bearish; there aren't too many people in the middle. Each camp has plenty of evidence in support of their argument too. Well, here's a piece of evidence you can add to...
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