One Expert's Data Indicates 21% Gain on S&P 500 in 2013

One Expert's Data Indicates 21% Gain on S&P 500 in 2013 Do Bulls Have History on Their Side? Convergent Wealth CEO David Zier is a sought after financial advisor.  And he has some surprising views of the market.  Zier suggests that the best way to invest this year may be with an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) broadly. Oftentimes pros will advocate a sector or area of the market such as technology (XLK) or industrials (XLI); Zier however isn't so sure that putting money into only one sector is a smart move. "I think this year we may see rotation in and out of sectors," he said. "Right now is a very challenging time to pick sectors. I'd rather be investing in the market, broadly." Part of Zier's bullish outlook involves proprietary research that he shared. "We did some research looking back at every single year when advance in the first quarter of the year was better than 10%," he said. Zier's research showed that that in such circumstances, "the market finished positively 92% of the time and higher than the first quarter 82% of the time." Perhaps most important is this result. "After a gain of 10% or more in Q1, the average return was 21% - that would suggest we have more room to run," he said.  [BigTrends.com Editor's Note:  This is consistent with our 2013 market projections based on first month and first 6 weeks performance analysis, see here.] If you're looking for beta, Zier offered another idea. "I really like emerging markets which are down 4% this year," he said, "and they're trading at a 12P/E." Zier thinks as the US market advances the (EEM) ETF could advance too.  However, it's worth noting he sees this investment idea as part of a broader bullish strategy involving US based companies. "I think you need to be in both. I'm not saying either/or." Courtesy of Lee Brodie, cnbc.com