Happy Derby! I'm excited to bring you my annual Kentucky Derby selections and commentary. First, let's start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. However, the requirement of 2 straight 100+ ratings has not been seen since Big brown won in 2008. The weather in Louisville on Saturday is expected to be cool with a high of 60 degrees and a 90% chance of rain. Looking at the hourly forecast the rain should lighten by the Derby post time, but the track should be muddy. This adds another element to the race, as certain horses have a pedigree for the mud and others don't like it one bit.
Derby Winner BRIS Speed Rating Last race (# weeks before Derby)
NYQUIST 97, 103 Floriday Derby (5 weeks)
AMERICAN PHAROAH 102, 99 Arkansas Derby (4 weeks)
CALIFORNIA CHROME 106,102 Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks)
ORB 97, 102 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER 95, 102 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
ANIMAL KINGDOM 100, 89 Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)
SUPER SAVER 92, 94 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
MINE THAT BIRD 96, 98 Sunland Derby (5 weeks)
BIG BROWN 106, 104 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
STREET SENSE 98, 101 Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)
BARBARO 104, 104, 97, 97 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
GIACOMO 100, 96, 98, 96 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101, 103 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
WAR EMBLEM 109, 105, 88, 94 Illinois Derby (4 weeks)
MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94 Lexington (2 weeks)
REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
SEA HERO 96, 85, 77 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100 Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)
STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
Last year I was high on Exaggerator who ran 2nd at 8-1 behind favorite Nyquist at 3-1. This year looks like one of the most wide open Derby races in a long time, as no horse boasts 2 consecutive 100+ speed ratings back to back coming into the Run for the Roses. I prefer to include a couple of sleepers that show good speed numbers with much more attractive odds. Remember the Derby is the biggest field of any race in the States all year, so in addition to talent, racing luck is needed. That's why I like to find value in the 5-1 to 20-1 range typically for the greatest 2 minutes in sports.
My favorite in this year's race is Irish War Cry (Post Position 17, 6-1 odds). Fresh off winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York, he shows 3 of the last 4 races with a speed ratings of 100+, more than any other horse. This is the type of consistency I look for to "key" a horse not only as a win bet but also in my exotic bets. I am concerned that he could be beat late by some horse who loves the mud, nipped at the wire by a late charging horse, as the Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. Typically, this doesn't show up on paper yet for these colts, as they've only gone 1-1/8 miles or less, and the Derby is 1-1/4 miles. That last 1/8 of a mile (also known as a "furlong" in the racing business) is what separates the champions from the also-rans. I think Irish War Cry wants that extra distance, as a son of the classic champion Curlin.
With those thoughts in mind, here are my top challengers to get in the picture at the finish line:
Hence (PP 8, 15-1): The horse hadn't shown much until a very impressive victory in the Sunland Derby, which longshot Mine That Bird used as his prep race before winning at long odds in the mud in 2009.
Girvin (PP 7, 15-1): This horse looked very impressive winning both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, but has lost some interest due to a quarter crack in his front right foot. Foot issues existed in Louisiana and he still won. I think he's worth the look at these odds.
Always Dreaming (PP 5, 5-1): Winner of the Florida Derby, this horse is a beautiful specimen, but something tells me he may fade after being near the front most of the race.
Also I would use Lookin at Lee (PP 1) and Thunder Snow (PP 2) in exotic bets for a piece or 3rd or 4th place.
Note I'm throwing out co-favorites McCracken and 2-year-old champion Classic Empire. Both are nice horses but I'm looking for more value with horses that have better upside.
So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:
$20 Win on 17
$10 Win on 7 & 8
$5 Exacta box 7, 17
$5 Exacta box 8, 17
$1 Exacta 17 with ALL
$1 Exacta ALL with 17
$1 Trifecta 17 with 7,8 with 1, 2, 5, 7, 8
Good Luck!
Price Headley