Cheap oil over for now? Trader Robert Raymond sees reasons to get bullish
When prominent trader Robert Raymond last saw oil prices trading around $65 a barrel back in 2014, he called it a "new housing bubble."
But what a difference a few years makes.
With U.S. crude oil bouncing around that same level again, Raymond no longer sees any major problems lurking. In fact, the founder of hedge fund RCH Energy, sees oil prices making a run even higher.
"Our bigger picture point is that the Nike swoosh recovery starting in 2015 and on is playing out within that range of an ultimate target of $65 to $75 a barrel," he said recently on CNBC's "Futures Now."
Raymond, who's known for predicting the 2011 natural gas price collapse, contended that the current oil market environment supports bullish prices.
"The longer term fundamental issue is demand is growing robustly around the world, excess capacity is basically disappearing, and so the market is now starting to price a barrel of oil at the marginal cost of supply," he added.
During a December 2014 interview with CNBC's "Futures Now," Raymond observed that the energy industry had outspent its cash flow to drill more wells. Those comments came after West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil collapsed to from $100 to $60 a barrel in just five months.
Since then, it's up five percent — with the biggest gains coming in just the past six months. In that period, the commodity has rallied more than 40 percent.
It's happening as a historic global expansion grips the markets, and with OPEC deciding to extend production cuts through the end of next year.
Raymond predicts changes will be necessary to cope with demand overtaking supply.
"U.S. shale guys cannot carry the global supply curve," said Raymond. "The industry needs to get back on its feet, and it needs to start drilling wells and figuring out how to grow supply beyond just the United States and U.S. shale."