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Price Headley’s 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks

Happy Derby! I'm excited to bring you my annual Kentucky Derby selections and commentary. First, let's start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. However, the requirement of 2 straight 100+ ratings has not been seen since Big Brown won in 2008. The weather in Louisville on Saturday is expected to be cloudy with only a 20% chance of rain.
                     
     Derby Winner             BRIS Speed Rating       Last race (# weeks before Derby)     
     ALWAYS DREAMING        102, 84                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)         
     NYQUIST                          97, 103                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)
     AMERICAN PHAROAH     102, 99                      Arkansas Derby (4 weeks)
     CALIFORNIA CHROME    106,102                      Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks)     
     ORB                                   97, 102                   Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     I'LL HAVE ANOTHER        95, 102                      Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     ANIMAL KINGDOM            100, 89                    Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)     
     SUPER SAVER                   92, 94                     Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     MINE THAT BIRD                96, 98                     Sunland Derby (5 weeks)     
     BIG BROWN                    106, 104                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     STREET SENSE               98, 101                     Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)     
     BARBARO           104, 104, 97, 97                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     GIACOMO             100, 96, 98, 96                     Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     SMARTY JONES  105, 109, 101, 103                 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     FUNNY CIDE             111, 103, 97                     Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     WAR EMBLEM    109, 105, 88, 94                      Illinois Derby (4 weeks)     
     MONARCHOS    108, 108, 106, 98                    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     FUSAICHI PEGASUS  110, 103, 100, 98          Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     CHARISMATIC     104, 94, 94, 94                       Lexington (2 weeks)     
     REAL QUIET            107, 103, 73                       Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     SILVER CHARM       102, 98, 105                      Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     GRINDSTONE          101, 102, 93                      Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     THUNDER GULCH    98, 103, 106                     Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     GO FOR GIN     104, 105, 99, 100                     Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     SEA HERO                   96, 85, 77                      Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     LIL E. TEE        102, 96, 107, 100                      Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)     
     STRIKE THE GOLD  109, 100, 99, 87               Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     UNBRIDLED     108, 101, 104, 98                      Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
                      
This year looks like one of the most wide open Derby races in a long time, as there are many quality horses with impressive speed ratings. Justify is the favorite at 3-1 with 3 starts all over 100 on the BRIS speed ratings, but he's trying to do what no horse has done since 1882: win the Kentucky Derby after no starts as a 2 year old. That's why I'll bet against him to win, though include him to place or show in some exotic bets. I prefer to include a couple of sleepers that show good speed numbers with much more attractive odds. Remember the Derby is the biggest field of any race in the States all year with 20 horses typically, so in addition to talent, racing luck is needed. That's why I like to find value in the 5-1 to 20-1 range typically for the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

My favorite in this year's race is Audible (Post Position 5, 8-1 odds). Fresh off winning the Florida Derby, which the last 2 Derby winners have used as their prep race, Audible has 4 straight wins with the BRIS rating on 107,105 in the last 2 wins.

Here are my top challengers to get in the picture at the finish line:

Enticed (PP 12, 30-1): With a BRIS rating of 99, 104, this one looks like a great value, and he won at Churchill Downs as a 2 year old.  

Justify (PP 7, 3-1): I have him at 3rd place as I figure a couple of horses will have a surprising late charge to overtake him. He likely will be good to win one of the next 2 Triple Crown races though with some more seasoning.  

Magnum Moon (PP 16, 6-1): Winner of the Arkansas Derby, he sports a 99, 100 speed combo which is solid if not spectacular.

Mendelssohn (PP 14, 5-1): This horse is a beautiful specimen, as he brought $3 million in a yearling sale. His 18 length victory in Dubai is eye popping, but the history of horse shipping in from that prep race is abysmal. So I have to throw him out at those low odds.   

Also I would use Noble Indy (PP 19, 30-1) and Hofburg (PP 9, 20-1) in exotic bets for a piece or 3rd or 4th place.

So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:  

$20 Win on 5
$10 Win on 12
$5 Exacta box 5, 12
$5 Exacta 5 with 16
$1 Exacta 5 with ALL
$1 Exacta ALL with 5
$1 Trifecta 5 with 7,12,16 with 7,9,12,16,19

Good Luck,
Price Headley
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