Happy Derby! I'm excited to bring you my annual Kentucky Derby selections and commentary. First, let's start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. However, the requirement of 2 straight 100+ ratings has not been seen since Big Brown won in 2008. The weather in Louisville on Saturday is expected to be cloudy with only a 20% chance of rain.
Derby Winner BRIS Speed Rating Last race (# weeks before Derby)
ALWAYS DREAMING 102, 84 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
NYQUIST 97, 103 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
AMERICAN PHAROAH 102, 99 Arkansas Derby (4 weeks)
CALIFORNIA CHROME 106,102 Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks)
ORB 97, 102 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER 95, 102 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
ANIMAL KINGDOM 100, 89 Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)
SUPER SAVER 92, 94 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
MINE THAT BIRD 96, 98 Sunland Derby (5 weeks)
BIG BROWN 106, 104 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
STREET SENSE 98, 101 Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)
BARBARO 104, 104, 97, 97 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
GIACOMO 100, 96, 98, 96 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101, 103 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
WAR EMBLEM 109, 105, 88, 94 Illinois Derby (4 weeks)
MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94 Lexington (2 weeks)
REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
SEA HERO 96, 85, 77 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100 Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)
STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
This year looks like one of the most wide open Derby races in a long time, as there are many quality horses with impressive speed ratings. Justify is the favorite at 3-1 with 3 starts all over 100 on the BRIS speed ratings, but he's trying to do what no horse has done since 1882: win the Kentucky Derby after no starts as a 2 year old. That's why I'll bet against him to win, though include him to place or show in some exotic bets. I prefer to include a couple of sleepers that show good speed numbers with much more attractive odds. Remember the Derby is the biggest field of any race in the States all year with 20 horses typically, so in addition to talent, racing luck is needed. That's why I like to find value in the 5-1 to 20-1 range typically for the greatest 2 minutes in sports.
My favorite in this year's race is Audible (Post Position 5, 8-1 odds). Fresh off winning the Florida Derby, which the last 2 Derby winners have used as their prep race, Audible has 4 straight wins with the BRIS rating on 107,105 in the last 2 wins.
Here are my top challengers to get in the picture at the finish line:
Enticed (PP 12, 30-1): With a BRIS rating of 99, 104, this one looks like a great value, and he won at Churchill Downs as a 2 year old.
Justify (PP 7, 3-1): I have him at 3rd place as I figure a couple of horses will have a surprising late charge to overtake him. He likely will be good to win one of the next 2 Triple Crown races though with some more seasoning.
Magnum Moon (PP 16, 6-1): Winner of the Arkansas Derby, he sports a 99, 100 speed combo which is solid if not spectacular.
Mendelssohn (PP 14, 5-1): This horse is a beautiful specimen, as he brought $3 million in a yearling sale. His 18 length victory in Dubai is eye popping, but the history of horse shipping in from that prep race is abysmal. So I have to throw him out at those low odds.
Also I would use Noble Indy (PP 19, 30-1) and Hofburg (PP 9, 20-1) in exotic bets for a piece or 3rd or 4th place.
So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:
$20 Win on 5
$10 Win on 12
$5 Exacta box 5, 12
$5 Exacta 5 with 16
$1 Exacta 5 with ALL
$1 Exacta ALL with 5
$1 Trifecta 5 with 7,12,16 with 7,9,12,16,19
Good Luck,
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