BigTrends 2015 Preakness Handicapping & Analysis - Longshot For The Exotics
BigTrends 2015 Preakness Handicapping & Analysis - Longshot For The Exotics
by Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:
The second leg of the Triple Crown happens this Saturday at Pimlico racecourse outside Baltimore, and Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah is the heavy 4-5 favorite to advance for a shot at the Triple Crown.
The Preakness is 1-3/16 miles (1/16 shorter than the Derby) and the weather should be good Saturday with only a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Bob Baffert has won 5 Preaknesses and is 3-for-3 in the Preakness with Derby winners. At the same time no horse has won the Preakness from the 1 post position in 54 years.
I think American Pharoah (Post Position 1) showed he was clearly the best horse in the Derby, running well wide and still winning handily. So I think Pharoah does win and the remaining likely question here in my view is who gets 2nd and 3rd. At 4-5 morning line odds, it's not worth betting Pharoah to win, we need to pair him with other horses to get a decent payoff.
Here's my assessment:
I think there will be extra speed in the race as both Pharoah & Dortmund (Post Position 2) drew the inside post positions and have to break quickly to get out of trouble on the rail.
I like a super sleeper here in Tale of Verve (PP 5, 30-1). The horse has shown a very nice closing kick in his last two starts, and I expect him to be charging late. If a speed duel causes a burnout on the front end, this one just might sneak up late to grab the win or at least hit the board.
I like Firing Line (PP 8, 4-1) to be in good stalking position, and I think he has a good shot to pull the upset too.
I haven't given up on Dortmund (PP 2, 7-2) though at 7-2 odds from the inside, I'm concerned he may have more of a speed battle on his hands that could tire him late.
I also think the local horse Bodhissatva (PP 6, 20-1) could get in the mix late for 3rd.
So here's my play on a model portfolio:
$10 Win on 5
$10 Exacta Box 1,5,8
$2 Trifecta 1 on top of 2,5,8 on top of 2,5,6,8
Good Luck!