It’s that time of year again here in the Bluegrass State where BigTrends.com is headquartered … the Kentucky Derby comes this weekend for the 137th time. You may know that BigTrends founder Price Headley and his family have a long history in the horse racing biz and that also he has experience with bloodline/handicapping analysis.
The big race this year doesn’t really have a “super horse” type favorite (one time favorite Uncle Mo was beaten last time out and was scratched Friday morning — we’ve updated the picks below to incorporate this news), and 19 horses are now currently entered — this should make for excellent odds and payouts in exotic bets like Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas for those skilled/lucky enough to hit the winners.
Weather-wise, we’ve had a very rainy Spring here and late thunderstorms are expected in Louisville on Saturday. But today is a fairly clear day and the track likely will be Fast Dirt when the race comes.
As part of our annual tradition, here are the Derby picks & analysis of Price and the other BigTrends analysts:
Price Headley:
he first Saturday in May means it’s time for the 137th Run for the Roses.
There’s a 50% chance of rain but I expect the track to stay fast.
One of my key rules of thumb for weeding out a 20 (now 19) horse field
(the Derby is always the largest field of any race in North America,
which is why racing luck is needed to win this stampede),
is that the winner historically has 2 good speed ratings in a row
coming in to this race.
This year only 4 horses meet that requirement:
19 Nehro – He’s my favorite to love the extra distance (the Derby is
1-1/4 miles
when the furthest any horse has run to this point is 1-1/8 miles – that last 1/8
of a mile, called a “furlong”, truly separates the men from the boys.
Nehro closed like gangbusters in the Arkansas Derby to lose by just a neck and
would clearly have won with the extra distance. If traffic is
navigated well, I expect him to be on the board.
13 Mucho Macho Man – No one seems to be talking about this horse,
but he meets the criteria and at 12-1 offers good value to also get up
near the end.
Dialed In and Archarcharch also meet this criteria, but I can’t bet on
the favorite,
who hasn’t won since Fusaichi Pegasus did it in 2000 (one of the few
times I bet the favorite as he was truly an awesome specimen).
Arch drew the dreaded 1 hole where the horse typically will give up
some ground early to settle in and not hit the rail after the break.
Here’s my $100 portfolio of bets – good luck on Derby Day!
$14 Win Nehro (19) = $14
$10 Win Mucho Macho Man (13) = $10
$1 Exacta Box 19 with ALL = $38
$1 Exacta ALL with 13 = $19
$1 Trifecta 19 with ALL with 13 = $19
Andrew Hart:
My top three in the field this year are Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Uncle Mo—with the scratch of Uncle Mo, who I considered an outlier, I’m adding Soldat into my bets. Here are the bets that I will be placing for the Saturday spectacle:
5 Derby Bets for $100:
$2 Trifecta Box on Animal Kingdom (16), Soldat (17), Shackleford (14)for $12
$15 forSoldat (17)
$15 for Shackleford (14) to Place for $15
$1 Superfecta Box on
$4 to Win on Soldat (17) for $4
Wide open race this year, I have 12 horses tagged for various combo bets. Not many distance closers and a lot of upfront speed in this year’s Derby. I like 2 closers to finish strong (Nehro and Archarcharch). With the scratch of Uncle Mo, the favorite Dialied In now looks likely to hit the board. And I’ve listed a bunch of longer odds horses at morning lines of 10-1 or more that certainly could finish top 4 and make for big exotic payouts.
Top 3:
Nehro (19) (6-1)
Dialed In (8) (4-1)
Pants On Fire (7) (20-1)
Live Longshots (great for Trifectas and Superfectas):
Archarcharch (1) (10-1)
Soldat (17) (12-1)
Midnight Interlude (15) (10-1)
Animal Kingdom (16) (30-1)
Derby Kitten (9) (30-1)
Twice The Appeal (3) (20-1)
Brilliant Speed (2) (30-1)
With $100 to bet, I would do the following:
$16 Win/Place Nehro (19) = $32
$1 Trifecta Box 19, 8, 7 = $6
$1 Exacta Box 19, 8, 7 = $6
$1 Exacta Wheel 19 with 8, 1, 17, 15, 16, 9, 3, 2 = $8
$0.10 Superfecta Box 19, 17, 2, 1, 3 =$12
$0.10 Superfecta Box 19, 16, 8, 17, 15 =$12
$0.10 Superfecta Box 19, 15, 8, 16, 9 = $12
$0.10 Superfecta Box 9, 8, 1, 3, 2 = $12
Total $100
Scott Downing:
After all of the rain that much of the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys have received over the month of April, the calendar has finally turned to May, which means one thing in Kentucky… It’s Derby Time!
Based upon a $100 trading portfolio, here are my bets:
Total $100
Have a great Derby weekend!
Price Headley
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