Fed Funds Rate Outlook

Posted by jbrumley on April 25, 2016 8:45 AM

Fed Funds to Remain Reined

Not only does the market not expect an increase in the Fed Funds rate this time around, traders still aren't looking for one until December... and even then the odds are relatively close to even it will remain at 0.5%. The rate picture is expected to remain quite accommodative through the beginning of the coming year.

Fed Funds Rate Outlook Chart, Futures-Based
042416-fed-funds
Data provided by CME FedWatch

Here's a different outlook based on analysts' collective opinions (and extending out a little further). In this timeframe, the pros are thinking the Federal Reserve will work a little more aggressively than the futures-driven outlook would suggest. Of the two, it's this latter one that may be more reliable, as some traders may only be using interest rate future to hedge, rather than as an actual bet.

Fed Funds Rate Outlook Chart, Opinion-Based
042416-fed-funds-rate-average-outlook
Source: Thomson Reuters

Even so, the pros still believe interest rates will largely remain in check through early 2017, with no change anticipated this week, and not much change expected at the next opportunity.

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