BigTrends 2016 Kentucky Derby Handicapping & Picks

It's time for our annual Kentucky Derby selections and commentary. First, we'll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race:  The weather in Louisville on Saturday is expected to be warm and sunny.
                     
     Derby Winner             BRIS Speed Rating       Last race (# weeks before Derby)     
     AMERICAN PHAROAH     102, 99                      Arkansas Derby (4 weeks)
     CALIFORNIA CHROME    106,102                     Santa Anita Derby (5 weeks)     
     ORB                                   97, 102                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     I'LL HAVE ANOTHER        95, 102                     Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     ANIMAL KINGDOM            100, 89                    Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)     
     SUPER SAVER                   92, 94                     Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     MINE THAT BIRD                96, 98                     Sunland Derby (5 weeks)     
     BIG BROWN                    106, 104                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     STREET SENSE               98, 101                     Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)     
     BARBARO           104, 104, 97, 97                     Florida Derby (5 weeks)     
     GIACOMO             100, 96, 98, 96                     Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     SMARTY JONES  105, 109, 101, 103               Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     FUNNY CIDE             111, 103, 97                      Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     WAR EMBLEM    109, 105, 88, 94                      Illinois Derby (4 weeks)     
     MONARCHOS    108, 108, 106, 98                    Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     FUSAICHI PEGASUS  110, 103, 100, 98          Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     CHARISMATIC     104, 94, 94, 94                       Lexington (2 weeks)     
     REAL QUIET            107, 103, 73                       Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     SILVER CHARM       102, 98, 105                      Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)     
     GRINDSTONE          101, 102, 93                      Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)     
     THUNDER GULCH    98, 103, 106                     Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     GO FOR GIN     104, 105, 99, 100                     Wood Memorial (3 weeks)     
     SEA HERO                   96, 85, 77                      Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     LIL E. TEE        102, 96, 107, 100                      Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)     
     STRIKE THE GOLD  109, 100, 99, 87               Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
     UNBRIDLED     108, 101, 104, 98                      Blue Grass (3 weeks)     
                     

Last year I was high on Dortmund who ran 3rd behind eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh.  I did have the top 3 finishers within my 5 favorite horses, but only managed to hit with an exacta picking the top 2 finishers to salvage the day. This year looks more wide open to me, and I prefer to include a couple of sleepers that show good speed numbers with much more attractive odds. Remember the Derby is the biggest field of any race in the States all year, so in addition to talent,  racing luck is needed. That's why I like to find value in the 8-1 to 20-1 range typically for the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

My favorite in this year's race is Exaggerator (Post Position 11, 8-1 odds). Fresh off winning the Santa Anita Derby, he shows the consistency I look for to "key" a horse not only as a win bet but also in my exotic bets. Four straight speed ratings above 100 can't be matched here. I am concerned that he could be nipped at the wire by a late charging horse, as the Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. Typically, this doesn't show up on paper yet for these colts, as they've only gone 1-1/8 miles or less, and the Derby is 1-1/4 miles. That last 1/8 of a mile (also known as a "furlong" in the racing business) is what separates the champions from the also-rans. We should have a beautiful sunny day with no rain at Churchill Downs for this year's Derby as well. 

With those thoughts in mind, here are my top challengers to get in the picture at the finish line:

Lani (PP 8, 30-1): The horse from the farthest distance away looked impressive winning the UAE Derby and appears to be overly discounted after the long trip to Louisville. While a win is a stretch, at these odds I have to take a shot.

Suddenbreakingnews (PP 2, 20-1): This horse is closing well after a fast charging 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and I expect him to be charging late. 

Nyquist (PP 13, 3-1): The Derby favorite must be included in exotic bets. I have a hunch he finishes third. 

Also include Brody's Cause (PP 19), Danzing Candy (PP 20) and Mohaymen (PP 14) in exotic bets. 

So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this: 

$10 Win on 2 & 8
$5 Exacta box 2, 11
$5 Exacta box 8, 11
$1 Exacta 11 with ALL
$1 Trifecta box 2, 8, 11, 13
$1 Trifecta 11 with 2, 8, 14, 19, 20 with 13

Good Luck,
Price Headley
BigTrends.com
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