BigTrends

Tag >> politics
dailymarquee

Germany is going nuclear with their insistence on issuing a ban on short selling.  Do they not pay attention to history?  What did that ban in 2008 do to our stock market after it was widely implemented?  Lower and lower prices.  Because you cannot short sell a stock (for only a limited time) does NOT mean you cannot sell your holdings.  Such rules have NEVER been beneficial to markets as the government tries to 'game it' and gain the upper hand.   However, that hand swings and misses each time.  Once in Pakistan this was implemented and the next several months saw the Karachi market decline more than 50%!

Even though Germany is far from a democratic society, perhaps they could learn some lessons from the past and let markets do what they do.  Government intervention and rules are not always the answer.


Last week's strange trading action led to an increased push by Congress to audit the Federal Reserve.  Now at this point, it looks like a watered-down (everything Congress does is watered-down nowadays, regardless of party) version will be passed, but will keep some protections for the FOMC in terms of disclosing its interest rate decision-making process.

From the Wall St. Journal online:

"Last-minute maneuvering in the Senate allowed the Federal Reserve to sidestep legislation that would have exposed its interest-rate decision-making to congressional auditors.

Pressure from the Obama administration led Senate lawmakers to alter a provision pushed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) that was gaining momentum despite opposition from the Treasury and the Fed. It would have largely repealed a 32-year-old law that shields Fed monetary policy from congressional auditors.

The compromise, endorsed by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and the Treasury, would require the Fed to disclose more details about its lending during the financial crisis. It would also require a one-time audit of those loans and a one-time review of Fed governance."

What do you think about the Fed's right to remain somewhat secretive to avoid political manipulation vs. the right of the taxpayers to know how money is being printed and spent?

If any of you had seen Animal House some 30 years ago, you may remember a fraternity of non-conformists who were just having a good time in college.  Well, take a look a this video clip, but let's substitute players with some of those who took center stage in the financial crisis.  Perchance to dream a bit, but maybe this is the attitude taken at the time?  Maybe this modern day fraternity is also something to pay attention to!  Perhaps they were saying this to any naysayers who did not agree with their plan.

Animal House Player      as      Financial Crisis Player

Otter                                          Hank Paulson

Flounder                                    Larry Summers

Hoover                                       Alan Greenspan

Bluto                                           Tim Geithner

Niedermaier                               Chris Cox

Boon                                             Robert Rubin

Stork                                            Ben Bernanke

Dean Wormer                             Anyone From Congress                                           


















The President of Toyota (TM) will be speaking before Congress today, and will surely take some "verbal lumps" from publicity-seeking politicians this week.  However, this may well mark the bottom TM shares, assuming the current mini-scandals are the last of the bad news in terms of major mechanical car problems.

This is a classic case of bad news taking a stock down, but the company being likely strong enough to survive and rebound.  It reminds a bit of the Audi problems in the 1980s, which of course were on a smaller scale -- but they blew over fairly quickly.  Toyota has built up a long-standing goodwill with customers around the world -- while this may have been mildly damaged, it can be regained by maintaining high quality standards and vigilance.

For all the talk of "Buy American", let's not forget that Toyota manufactures cars and trucks in states like Kentucky, Alabama, Texas, Indiana and West Virginia.  Many other foreign car makers also build a great many vehicles and parts in the USA, providing good jobs for Americans.  And these states are grateful for this employment ... as are their politicians.

While there certainly is risk in TM shares due to the overall market, the world economy, as well as the Auto Industry itself, I maintain that the "bad news" drop in the shares is just about over starting with today.

TM Daily Chart

This is just TOO MUCH.  Obama wants to slap the banks silly once again, this time taking away their ability to trade prop desks and invest/own hedge funds.  Are you kidding me?  Take away the lifeblood (yes, more than transactions) of these traditional iBanks, and what do u have left?  Let me get this straight...these are public companies, right?  And they 'normally' use private money to create capital?  Now they cannot use private capital (TARP money was paid back, remember?) for trading purposes?  This smacks of a social terror we should all fear, nevermind the cap on compensation issue, which is also something out of socialist playbook.  Right before our eyes the very freedoms our country were born with are being stripped away, one by one.  Without regard for the common good.  Are the banks the cause of the recent problems, or just the effect?  I think more of the latter than the former, but regardless of my view this is just plain wrong.

What do we have, three years left on this term?  Perhaps the outrage of the American people will signal a revolt that may turn his views 180 degrees.  As an optimist, I'm hopeful....as a realist, I'm doubtful. 


So, Washington wants to punish Wall Street for the 'evils' of the past few year.  Sound familiar?  Sure it does.  It seems everytime someone loses and it appears Wall Street is the big winner it's time to dole out the punishment.  Remember the tech bubble?  Who was to blame and who bore all the consequences afterward.  You got it.   Now, the winds are blowing about a trader's tax, which has the propensity to really drive stake through the heart of the markets.  Nevermind the volatility, how about wider spreads, higher trading costs (passed on by the brokers, of course) and less turnover.  It's going to be your Grandfather's market once again!

I encourage everyone to vote their conscious and take a stance on this bill.  In my opinion, it's just not right and will be the START of higher fees and taxes...not the end.  The petition link is below.  If you're a trader, think of the impact on your business.  An active trader stands no chance of surviving in such an environment.   The bogey is even higher.  This tax is an easy way to strip the little guy of any freedom of trading.  It's that important!

http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congres-to-block-trader-tax/


In politics, data lags badly...and a political career can be made/broken just on this alone.  For instance, the jobs number that was released today was awful, but seems to be trending better.  Politicians this year have had  the luxury in 2009 of only having to beat the dreadful numbers in 2008, especially since August.  However, the market has also risen in anticipation of this, and perhaps the market is pricing in greater improvement.  Clearly the 10.2% unemployment rate should not surprise anyone except those who KNOW it's really higher than that.   Is it really their fault?  Partially, but the number is still not sufficient to say the economy is out of the woods.  But one bright side...voters, who make up this unemployed number, will now start to have a voice.   You see, Tuesday was a symbolic election.   I spoke about this on Monday, and while quiet the Republicans gained some small victories.  Sure, it was only a couple of gubernatorial races, but this was the first election since President Obama was installed, and voters are getting anxious about his performance.  Maybe it's a small signal, but a signal nonetheless.  I don't know whether this will call for a change in attitude by those on the 'Hill and in the White House, but if they aren't paying attention to voters then indeed President Obama's message will be made next time around...CHANGE.  Maybe that can turn things around.

In politics, data lags badly...and a political career can be made/broken just on this alone.  For instance, the jobs number that was released today was awful, but seems to be trending better.  Politicians this year have had  the luxury in 2009 of only having to beat the dreadful numbers in 2008, especially since August.  However, the market has also risen in anticipation of this, and perhaps the market is pricing in greater improvement.  Clearly the 10.2% unemployment rate should not surprise anyone except those who KNOW it's really higher than that.   Is it really their fault?  Partially, but the number is still not sufficient to say the economy is out of the woods.  But one bright side...voters, who make up this unemployed number, will now start to have a voice.   You see, Tuesday was a symbolic election.   I spoke about this on Monday, and while quiet the Republicans gained some small victories.  Sure, it was only a couple of gubernatorial races, but this was the first election since President Obama was installed, and voters are getting anxious about his performance.  Maybe it's a small signal, but a signal nonetheless.  I don't know whether this will call for a change in attitude by those on the 'Hill and in the White House, but if they aren't paying attention to voters then indeed President Obama's message will be made next time around...CHANGE.  Maybe that can turn things around.

Last night, James McClung from Stock Shotz interviewed me about markets, politics and other issues.  It was a much fun, so here is part one of the session.


One longer-term indicator I've watched with interest is the Uptick Rule (in which stocks cannot be sold short without first having an uptick). This rule was put in place in 1938 after the sharp drop in 1937, as a means to slow down the crash-like drops that can cascade very quickly without such a barrier in place.

Isn't it interesting that the uptick rule was eliminated on July 6, 2007? Note the sell arrow on the chart of the Dow "Diamonds" ETF (DIA) which trades about 1/100th the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on that date. The uptick rule was eliminated as it was claimed to be a relic that modern technology no longer required.